Thursday, April 18, 2013

2013 NBA Playoff Predictions

It's a very exciting time for sports: baseball is back, the NFL Draft is almost upon us, and both the NBA and NHL are gearing up for the playoffs.

With the quest for the Larry O'Brien Trophy beginning this Saturday, I'm going to take a look at all eight of the first round series in The Association (high seed listed first).

Western Conference

Oklahoma City Thunder (60-22) vs. Houston Rockets (45-37)
This will be an extremely entertaining series to watch. Not only does it have the built-in James Harden vs. his old team storyline, but the two teams like to get up and down the court. The Rockets and Thunder were #2 and #3 respectively in points per game. Houston also averaged the most possessions per game in the league. The Thunder won the regular season series 2-1 and I don't see this playoff series being any different. OKC put up 363 points in three games against the Rockets. Even with the loss of Harden, the Thunder are still a deep team with Kevin Martin coming off the bench. Plus, having two of the top-10 players in the league with Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook never hurts.
Oklahoma City wins the series 4-1.

San Antonio Spurs (58-24) vs. Los Angeles Lakers (45-37)
Many people thought this could be a potential Western Conference Final. Now, these two storied franchies are meeting in the first round of the playoffs. If Kobe Bryant didn't recently go down with an ankle injury, I'd feel better about the match-up for the Lakers. However, he's on the shelf with an Achilles injury. Add that to the fact that Manu Ginobli just returned for the Spurs, it's hard to imagine the Lakers pulling an upset.  And don't forget: Steve Nash isn't the most capable defender in the league. At 39, he'll be in charge of keeping Tony Parker in check.  The only bright spot for the Lakers is that Dwight Howard carried the Orlando Magic to the 2009 Finals on his now surgically-repaired back. If he can reclaim that form, the Lake-show can push the Spurs. That being said, Tim Duncan and the Spurs have one last run in them.
San Antonio wins the series 4-2.

Denver Nuggets (57-25) vs. Golden State Warriors (47-35)
The Nuggets are another team that like to run, leading the NBA in points per game and being a very close second to the Rockets in possessions per game. They'll play even faster without injured forward Danio Gallinari. Ty Lawson loves to push the team in transition. My only concern with Denver is the health of "The Manimal" Kenneth Faried. He should rebound quickly from his sprained ankle. The case for Golden State comes from the sharpshooting of Stephen Curry, who just set the record for most made 3-pointers in a season. Golden State will go as far as Curry will take them, but the Nuggets have too much depth. If the Nuggets get past Golden State, expect them to make a long run through the rest of the playoffs -- possibly to the NBA Finals?
Denver wins the series 4-1.

Los Angeles Clippers (56-26) vs. Memphis Grizzlies (56-26)
It'll be a strange sight to see the Clippers have a home playoff game before the Lakers do, especially this year. And I know it's a disservice to this Clippers team by mentioning the Lakers right away. It just comes with the territory. Anyways, I doubt Lob City wanted to see this Memphis team in the playoffs again after last year. L.A. won the series 4-3, but it could've been very different. The Grizzlies gave up a 27-point lead in Game 1 and did not have the strongest Game 7. As for this year, Memphis is 27-10 after trading Rudy Gay to the Toronto Raptors in January. As much as I think Blake Griffin's game has improved, I see Memphis taking this series. However, it's really hard to pick against Chris Paul...
Memphis wins the series 4-3.

Eastern Conference

Miami Heat (66-16) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (38-44)
Really? Heat will romp all over the Bucks. Except a really quick series to give LeBron and Co. some time off for the rest of their run in the playoffs. Milwaukee will wish that the league went back to the best-of-five this season.
Miami wins the series 4-0.

New York Knicks (54-28) vs. Boston Celtics (41-40)
Two more teams that met in last year's playoffs. The Celtics knocked out the Knicks last year, and I think this year will be another tight series. Since Rajon Rondo tore his ACL, Paul Pierce has put this Celtics team on his back. It's also hard to find a player more intense than Kevin Garnett, who showed earlier this season he could get under the skin of New York superstar and NBA scoring champion Carmelo Anthony. It will be up to Melo to show he can fight back with his play on the court. If the Celtics can get Anthony off his game, the bulk of the scoring will have to come from *gulp* J.R. Smith. I think this will be a very close series as Boston isn't ready to relinquish their hopes of a playoff run. However, the Knicks will knock the veteran team out of the playoffs.
New York wins the series 4-3.

Indiana Pacers (49-32) vs. Atlanta Hawks (44-38)
While Josh Smith may be playing for a contract, Paul George has shown he is capable of carrying a team. Now, will he make "The Leap" in the playoffs? He has a nice opponent in an Atlanta team that hasn't shown a lot of life coming down the stretch, as they are 4-6 in their last 10 games. It will still be a close series. The teams split the season series, so that doesn't help clear up this picture. In the long run, I think the Pacers will be able to clog up the middle with Roy Hibbert and ride George to a close series win.
Indiana wins the series 4-2.

Brooklyn Nets (49-33) vs. Chicago Bulls (45-37)
The Nets face a tough challenge here against Chicago. The Bulls have been crippled by injuries all season, losing a total of 180 games due to injury this year. However, they are getting (somewhat) healthy at the right time. Joakim Noah is back, but will see limited minutes to start. Will the Nets be able to take advantage of that? They should have a favourable match-up at the point guard spot with Deron Williams. He'll need to be at his best to beat this tough, defensively-sound Bulls team. This one will probably be a toss up, but Chicago has been resilient this season.
Chicago wins series 4-3.

Overall
Now, since the NBA has a weird schedule in the playoffs, it's hard to do round-by-round predictions. So, I'll give the remainder of my predictions here. I'll start off with I think may be the easiest pick of them all. The Miami Heat will win the Eastern Conference. Vegas has you losing money if you place a bet on the Heat winning the conference. That's not a good sign for the remaining teams.

As for the Western Conference, I think it'll be an Oklahoma City/Denver Conference Finals. This will be an exciting series, but OKC will prove to be too much for the Nuggets. It will be a close series though, probably going the distance.

So that brings us to a rematch of last year's NBA Finals. As much as I love the Durant-Westbrook combo in Oklahoma City, it's hard to beat the best player in the world. While Durant - or "Iceberg Slim" as Jalen Rose calls him - may be the best pure scorer in the game, LeBron is the best overall. After this season, it'll be two rings for The King. It's very hard seeing any team stopping the runaway freight train that is the Miami Hat.

So, there you have it. If you're going to watch any playoff basketball, lean towards the Western Conference. Do you agree or disagree with my picks? Do you think I'm taking the easy way out having Heat win it all again? Let us know in the comment section below.

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