Friday, December 6, 2013

The Run to the Playoffs: NFL Edition

Well folks, it's about 3/4 of the way through the NFL season. What better time than now to take a look at the Schmucks' preseason predictions and get a look at some thoughts for the upcoming run to the Super Bowl.

My biggest prediction from the off-season predictions and NFL preview podcast was that Mr. All Day himself Adrian Peterson would break the NFL's rushing record of 2,105 this season. As of this article with Week 13 coming up, he isn't even the league's leading rusher. So, count me off track on that one. I mostly blame the terrible quarterback play of the Vikings for this one. Whether it be Ponder, Freeman or Cassel, all of them have been terrible. Expect a high quarterback pick this May in the draft.

Another subject both Brett and I discussed actually came semi-true and that was the play of Robert Griffin III and how he would come back from his ACL injury. So far, he actually has played pretty well, but you can tell he is not the same quarterback that he was last year: jittery in the pocket and doubling the amount of turnovers this year from the same time last year. The lack of training camp in the off-season, and all his focus on rehabbing his knee are most likely the culprits for his slide. I expect a full off-season to fix what ails him and for him to bounce back next year.

Not to insult fellow writer Brett with a couple of dubious picks this year, but he is last in the fantasy football league that we are in and will have the SACKO coming his way this year. (Editor's note: I believe I said I would win the SACKO) And his pick of Eli Manning for league MVP was quite off to say the least. (Don't know what I was on when I picked that scenario.) Our choice of Jarvis Jones for defensive rookie of the year was off base as well, but the Steelers struggles have been quite surprising. Our picks for division winners this year have been hit and miss this year especially in the AFC South.

In the NFC East, our choices of the Giants for Brett (Giants are only two games back) and Redskins for me is completely off with the revamped teams of the division the Eagles and Cowboys in a dogfight for top dog in the division. I believe Nick Foles will lead the Eagles to win the division. In the NFC North, no would in their right mind would think the Lions would be on top this late into the season, but the injury to Aaron Rodgers and the terrible defensive play of the the Packers left that door open. The Lions will win the division in a tight race to the end with the Bears. The NFC South has been a topsy-turvy story with every team being a surprise in their own right. Both Brett and I picked the Saints to win the division, but I did not see the Panthers playing this well. I thought next year would be in their fight for the division lead. The weeks coming up will be a big factor in who wins the division with the Panthers and Saints facing off twice. I think the Saints will come out on top. My prediction of the Falcons being overrated came to fruition, and the Buccaneers were going to be boom or bust this year as I said. It looks like they went bust, but have been competitive none-the-less. The NFC West has been Seattles' play thing this year and if they win home field you might as well book them a trip to New York for the Super Bowl. The 49ers have been surprisingly flat so far, but seem to be coming around late in year. My pick for a surprise wild card team in Arizona has been playing extremely well.

The AFC East, West and North has gone to plan for our picks with the Patriots, Bengals, and Broncos on top of their divisions handily. The AFC South pick of the Houston Texans went quite terribly with their season being an absolute disaster, with quarterback Matt Schaub going belly up and more then likely forcing the Texans into a high quarterback pick in the u coming draft. The interesting fight in the AFC is for the wild card position, where pretty much every team but the Texans and Jaguars have a shot at the final playoff spot. The Dolphins and Ravens are at 6-6 records right now, with the Titans, Chargers, Steelers, and Jets breathing down their necks at 5-7. The Bills, Browns, and Raiders are still in the picture at 4-8, but any kind of run in the upcoming weeks can put them right there at the end.

This season has been chalk full of shocking stories like the Jonathan Martin bullying situation down in Miami. I know it is the NFL and teams demand their players to be bad-ass, tough son of a guns, but in the end of the day these men are still human and who likes to be threatened while going to work? I believe Richie Incognito's punishment so far to his reputation and suspension have been fitting to the crime. I do believe he will play again, but not with the Dolphins. I believe both players will be moved in the off-season to new teams for the fresh starts they need.

As I said, RG3's drama this year has even gone beyond the knee with even his father being to blame for his play in the locker room. Washington has just been a bad team this year and the season will be a growing pain year like the one that Kansas City faced last year. Expect a bounce back next year.

The Buccaneers have had embarrassing story after embarrassing story come out this year. If it wasn't three players on the team getting a severe staph infection called MRSA, it was the ridicule of head coach Greg Schiano and the calling for him to be fired. Or the release of quarterback Josh Freeman. This year clearly has not gone to plan for the Buccaneers, but they have been playing well enough to have a much better record then they currently have. Mike Glennon could contend for Rookie of the Year. I still expect changes in off-season to the coach and GM, and a big year next year.

The biggest story of the year has to be the Texans and Chiefs, one going from worst team last year to potential Super Bowl contender and the other going from Super Bowl contender to worst team in the league. Even worse than the Jaguars. Quite shocking what has happened in Houston. They will need a lot of help in the off-season to get back to division top dog. Kansas City has played so well on behalf of their quarterback not being incompetent, with fringe choice for MVP Alex Smith leading them to a 9-3 record so far this year, and their defence being one of the best in the league.

Now that we have recapped what has taken place so far this season, it is time for updated selections for MVP, Offensive and Defensive Player of the Year, Rookies of the Year, and the Super Bowl champion of course!

We will start off with the Rookies of the Year on the defensive and offensive side. Our original picks for the Offensive Rookie of the Year was for EJ Manuel (Brett) and Tavon Austin (me). Manuel had a great start to the season, but injuries derailed his chance at the award. As much as Austin has picked it up later in the season, his beginning to his rookie year was terrible and he hasn't been able to recover from that. So with that, my updated pick for rookie of the year is Eddie Lacy from the Packers, who has single-handedly revived a stale and nearly dead rushing attack for the Packers. Also in consideration has been Mike Glennon from the Buccaneers who has turned the team around since taking over for Josh Freeman.

On the defensive side of the ball, the original picks for the Rookie of the Year for both Brett and I was Jarvis Jones of the Steelers. While Jones hasn't had the greatest first year, recording only one sack and 24 tackles up to the point of this article being written, it is another line backer taken in the 2nd round who has become the Sports By Schmucks defensive Rookie of the Year. Kiko Alonso from the Buffalo Bills has quietly become a force in the middle of the Bills' defence. The rangy former Oregon Duck has amassed 112 tackles up to this point, which is second in the league, along with four interceptions and two sacks. Another player to that caught my eye this year has been Sheldon Richardson from the Jets, who has been a disruptive force on the defensive line for the Rex Ryan Jets.

Both Brett and I had some interesting choices for who the Defensive Player of the Year could be. Brett chose Cam Wake and I chose Brian Orpako for the DPOY. Both are having solid years, but no one can touch this Seattle defender who has backed up his talk as one of the best to ever play the position. My choice for Defensive Player of the Year is Richard Sherman. While his stats aren't eye popping, that is for a reason: quarterbacks are just afraid to throw at him. He is the definition of shut down. With 29 tackles and 4 picks to this point, I don't expect him to put up to many more tackles or picks. But it's the fear he brings to quarterbacks that earns my respect and my player of the year choice. My other consideration for the award would be Robert Mathis from the Colts who is quietly having a great season in Indy, amassing 15.5 sacks so far this season to go along with a safety and five forced fumbles.

Our Offensive Player of the Year choice was Adrian Peterson. He was also my MVP choice. Brett's choice for MVP crazily enough (emphasis on crazy) was Eli Manning. But I believe it is the other Manning who will take home both awards. Peyton Manning has been having a whale of a season, with just over 4,100 yards passing, 41 touchdowns and only 9 picks all while leading his team to a 10-2 record. He more than deserves the choice as the Most Valuable Player in the NFL. Other players in consideration for each award is Calvin Johnson in Detroit and Adrian Peterson for the Vikings. Each are having incredible years, but will fall short in comparison to the year that Peyton is having.

Now, down to a topic we didn't hit on in the podcast or my season preview which is coach of the year. My choice for coach of the year is Ron Rivera in Carolina who has taken a team who last year had a 7-9 record, started out 0-2 this year, and is now 9-2 with nine straight impressive wins. Failing a late season collapse to the playoffs, he will win the award. Andy Reid in Kansas City also deserves major kudos for the job done there, but his roster was full of Pro Bowl talent. Bringing in quarterback Alex Smith maybe deserves more credit there for the turn around.

On to the final topic to look at and that is the eventually champ of the NFL. Brett and I originally had the match up set as the Denver Broncos vs the Seattle Seahawks for the Super Bowl. Nothing has changed from that original picking. We are just now more reinforced in our picks. Brett still has Peyton going on to win his 2nd Lombardi trophy, while I have Seattle winning it's first title ever bringing the trophy back to the 12th man in Seattle.

That is our look back and forward of the NFL's season so far. Keep an eye out for upcoming articles and podcasts from the guys at Sports by Schmucks, including a look at the MLB off-season at the big free agent signings so far and what's to come.

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